Three-in-one

Anorak’s Big Game Banker bet – £70 on 1/2 at Coral

Unfortunately I was unable to place, or provide you with, any bets in midweek. However, I have been declared “a reasonably healthy male” and I am determined to make up for lost time. Resultantly, I have gone for a combined three-in-one bet.

To clarify:-

• It tenuously qualifies as an Anorak’s bet because it is not on the match result.
• It is a Banker because it is almost nailed on.
• It hinges somewhat on the Big Game. Therefore… you got it!

Manchester City V Manchester United (Monday 20.00) – United to win the Premier League.

Monday night’s clash between Manchester United and Manchester City is the most significant and toughest-to-call Manchester derby in Premier League history.

The bookies make City clear favourites [best price 5/4 at William Hill]  because of home advantage and, perhaps, a certain 6-1 win at Old Trafford in October. However, Newcastle United are the only English top-flight side in better form than the Red Devils.

I simply cannot call this match. In the past five meetings at the Etihad Stadium, each side has won twice and there has been one draw.

This game has been dubbed a ‘winner takes all’ affair. However, it isn’t.

City, who are three points behind their rivals in the Premier League table, do need to win to keep their title chase alive.

A draw would leave United firmly in the driving seat, while a win will all but mathematically seal their 20th English championship.

However, Sir Alex Ferguson’s men will still have a huge chance of retaining their crown if they lose this titanic tussle.

Roberto Mancini’s men would go top with a win against their enemy, but only on goal difference. That means the Citizens would still have no margin for error.

City’s final two fixtures are away at high-flying Champions League chasers Newcastle and at home to ultra-determined relegation-scrappers Queens Park Rangers.

Conversely, United have comfortable fixtures against two mid-table sides – Swansea City and Sunderland – who have nothing to play for.

Been there, won that, made the shit tee-shirt.

Continental shame

Banker – £50 on 1/4 at William Hill

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Manchester City (Sunday 16.00) – Man City to win

Since Terry Connor’s ill-fated arrival two months ago, poor old Wolves have not won a game in nine attempts.

Depending on the result at Loftus Road on Saturday, failure to claim all three points against Roberto Mancini’s title-hunters could officially confirm the inevitable end of Wanderers’ three-year stint in the top flight.

However, despite all the doom and gloom, the Black Country outfit have earned one Europe-wide accolade so far this season.

No side in any of Europe’s premier divisions (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France) has gathered fewer points per home league game. Wolves‘ 11 points from 17 Molineux matches gives them an an average of 0.65 points per game which has proved impossible to beat.

Conversely, opponents Man City have the highest points-per-home-game record in Europe (2.88) and, although their away figure is much less impressive (1.65), this should be a walk in the park.

I predicted the return of Carlos Tevez to be instrumental at Carrow Road last week and he proved me right with a stunning hattrick in the 6-1 thumping of Norwich City.

I fully expect he and his teammates to well and truly fill their boots once again on Sunday.

Terry, you were warned!

Swings and roundabouts

Weekly Review

A £23.77 profit and a free helping of a large bunch of grapes, unfortunately sour ones.

Blackburn Rovers 3-2 Liverpool (Tip: Blackburn to win both halves -£5)

Rovers looked petrified early on and after they shipped two Maxi Rodriguez goals in the opening 16 minutes this bet never looked on the cards.

However, the hosts were offered a route back in to the match on 25 minutes. Reds goalkeeper Alexander Doni, on just his second Premier League appearance, became the fifth Liverpool player to be sent off this season after he brought down Junior Hoilett in the penalty area. Only Queens Park Rangers have had more red cards this term (seven).

After Yakubu had missed the resultant spot kick but then netted a brace, 10-man Liverpool struck out of the blue and won it in stoppage time, courtesy of Andy Carroll’s first goal in 10 games.

Liverpool 2-1 Everton (Tip: Liverpool to qualify +£8)

After Tuesday’s smash and grab victory at Blackburn, the Reds relied upon a late Carroll header again to win this one. However, Kenny Dalglish’s side we well worthy of the result.

Liverpool had exactly double (18) the number of shots as their opponents (nine), and three times the corners (six to two).

The persistent Carroll’s fine header in the 86th minute was his sixth goal attempt, but his first to find the target.

Norwich City 1-6 Manchester City (Tip: Manchester City to win +£30.77)

I tipped Tevez to make the difference and he was sensational. In addition to becoming the 18th player in Premier League history to net four hat-tricks, he cutely assisted Sergio Aguero’s first and won more free kicks (four) than any other player on the field.

After winning the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium earlier 5-1 in the season, this emphatic win completed an 11-2 aggregate win over the Canaries, which is Man City‘s biggest against any side in the Premier League era.

Tottenham Hotspur 1-5 Chelsea (Tip: Spurs to win in extra time -£10)

It is difficult to view this game objectively and statistically, baring in mind that Martin Atkinson’s decision to award Chelsea a ‘ghost goal’ and a 2-0 lead early in the second half seemed to change the direction of the game immeasurably.

Despite trailing at the break, Spurs had looked the more lively team in the first half. Rafael van der Vaart had an effort cleared off the line by John Terry and struck the post before Didier Drogba gave his side the lead with a wondrous strike – his first in four FA Cup games since netting the winner in the 2010 final against Portsmouth.

I apologise, but what happened after Mata’s 49th minute goal is very much a blur.

Mata 'ghost goal'.

Roberto Di Matteo had dismissed suggestions that his team had been at all lucky of late and there were Chelsea complaints about the FA on two counts in the build-up to this game. One, that Branislav Ivanovic received a ban for violent conduct despite only punching Shaun Maloney in the stomach and, two, that kicking off 6pm was not only disruptive to the Blues’ preparation for Barcelona on Wednesday, it also risked endangering the safety of supporters.

Maybe the idiots on Match of the Day, who week-upon-week churn out the old chestnut “they all even themselves out over the course of a season”, have been proven right. Maybe…

Without prolonging my rant any further, let’s just put this down to a freak occurance. After all it has never happened before…  Oh!

April 2011: Chelsea 2-1 Spurs. Lampard almost broke the net with this 'goal'.

Terrific Tevez

Banker – £50 on 8/13 at Stan James

Norwich City v Manchester City (Saturday 12.45) – Man City to win

After last week’s 1-0 loss at Arsenal, I had ruled Manchester City out of the title race. However after a miracle in Wigan on Wednesday night, they are right back in it.

The fact that the Citizens play 24 hours before Manchester United is hugely significant. Roberto Mancini’s men will be fully aware and focused by the fact that a win at Carrow Road will close the gap on their fellow championship-chasing neighbours to just two points.

Although Man City have failed to win in their last three away league games, they beat the Canaries 5-1 in the reverse fixture in December.

More importantly, after almost seven months of severe posturing, Carlos Tevez has finally been welcomed back into the first-team setup at the Etihad Stadium, marking his first start since September with a goal in the 4-0 rout of West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday.

The Argentine forward is likely to make the starting XI again in this game and his presence could prove vital. In his last 11 starts City have won 10 times.

While Norwich have only lost four of 16 at home this year and surprised a lot of people by winning at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, I expect a full-strength and fully fired-up Man City to overpower them.

He is back - the missing piece in Mancini's jigsaw.

Nice but dim

Weekly Review

It was a solid week for Pie-backers with three wins out of four, but I appreciate that the high concentration of heavily odds-on bets may have failed to capture the imagination of some. I promise bigger prices next week.

Bayern Munich 2-0 Marseille (Tip: HT/FT: Bayern/Bayern +7.27)

Ivica Olic opened the scoring after 13 minutes and doubled his tally eight minutes before half time. This bet never looked in doubt.

The goals were the Croatian’s first in the Champions League since he struck a second-leg hat-trick in the 2010 semi-final with Lyon.

Barcelona 3-1 AC Milan (Tip: Barca to win +14.29)

Although Barcelona showed their brilliance in flashes, they were aided by some clumsy and naive defending.

Luca Antonini played the role of clumsy, awkwardly chopping down Lionel Messi for the penalty which put the Catalan side back ahead after Zlatan Ibrahimovic had levelled Andres Iniesta’s opener.

Then, experienced World Cup winner Alessandro Nesta was downright stupid, as he tugged down Sergio Busquets in an off-the-ball incident to give away the second spot kick of the night.

Messi converted both and, in the process, broke his own previous record for the highest number of goals scored in a single Champions League campaign (14).

Sunderland 0-0 Tottenham Hotspur (Tip: Cattermole to receive the first booking -£5)

God loves a trier. And Lee Cattermole tried his hardest to win this bet for me, but referee Chris Foy had other ideas. The tough-tackling midfielder looked certain to win the quick-caution prize when he crunched into Sandro midway through the first half. However, Foy decided a waggle of the head and a shake of the finger was punishment enough. The Brazilian eventually retaliated and took the honours.

Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City (Tip: Arsenal to beat Man City [draw-no-bet] +7.78)

Despite not claiming the winning goal until three minutes before the end, Arsenal thoroughly deserved their victory. City failed to muster a single shot on target and Mario Balotelli’s fourth red card in two seasons added insult to injury in stoppage time. Game set and match Manchester United, surely.