Out of their depth

Big Game – £10 on 8/11 at Ladbrokes.

Chelsea V Barcelona (Wednesday 19.45) – Barcelona to win

Although Chelsea have improved significantly since Roberto Di Matteo took over on almost seven weeks ago – winning nine out of 12 matches – they have been nervy at home.

In their last three games at Stamford Bridge – a goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur, plus two last-minute, and highly controversial, 2-1 wins over Benfica and Wigan – the Blues have been far from convincing.

Barcelona, who have won seven of their last eight away fixtures, are the best team Di Matteo has ever faced, or is ever likely to face, in his entire managerial career.

The world club champions have won 43 out of their 56  games this season (a win rate of 76.79%), while Chelsea have only tasted success in 27 of their 52 engagements (51.92%).

Lionel Messi has scored a record-breaking 14 goals in his nine Champions League appearances this season, however, he has not scored in six previous attempts against Chelsea. I won’t be at all surprised if the ‘Little Maestro’, who is averaging 1.36 goals-per-game in all competitions this season, ends that barren run very soon.

Room for one more?

Swings and roundabouts

Weekly Review

A £23.77 profit and a free helping of a large bunch of grapes, unfortunately sour ones.

Blackburn Rovers 3-2 Liverpool (Tip: Blackburn to win both halves -£5)

Rovers looked petrified early on and after they shipped two Maxi Rodriguez goals in the opening 16 minutes this bet never looked on the cards.

However, the hosts were offered a route back in to the match on 25 minutes. Reds goalkeeper Alexander Doni, on just his second Premier League appearance, became the fifth Liverpool player to be sent off this season after he brought down Junior Hoilett in the penalty area. Only Queens Park Rangers have had more red cards this term (seven).

After Yakubu had missed the resultant spot kick but then netted a brace, 10-man Liverpool struck out of the blue and won it in stoppage time, courtesy of Andy Carroll’s first goal in 10 games.

Liverpool 2-1 Everton (Tip: Liverpool to qualify +£8)

After Tuesday’s smash and grab victory at Blackburn, the Reds relied upon a late Carroll header again to win this one. However, Kenny Dalglish’s side we well worthy of the result.

Liverpool had exactly double (18) the number of shots as their opponents (nine), and three times the corners (six to two).

The persistent Carroll’s fine header in the 86th minute was his sixth goal attempt, but his first to find the target.

Norwich City 1-6 Manchester City (Tip: Manchester City to win +£30.77)

I tipped Tevez to make the difference and he was sensational. In addition to becoming the 18th player in Premier League history to net four hat-tricks, he cutely assisted Sergio Aguero’s first and won more free kicks (four) than any other player on the field.

After winning the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium earlier 5-1 in the season, this emphatic win completed an 11-2 aggregate win over the Canaries, which is Man City‘s biggest against any side in the Premier League era.

Tottenham Hotspur 1-5 Chelsea (Tip: Spurs to win in extra time -£10)

It is difficult to view this game objectively and statistically, baring in mind that Martin Atkinson’s decision to award Chelsea a ‘ghost goal’ and a 2-0 lead early in the second half seemed to change the direction of the game immeasurably.

Despite trailing at the break, Spurs had looked the more lively team in the first half. Rafael van der Vaart had an effort cleared off the line by John Terry and struck the post before Didier Drogba gave his side the lead with a wondrous strike – his first in four FA Cup games since netting the winner in the 2010 final against Portsmouth.

I apologise, but what happened after Mata’s 49th minute goal is very much a blur.

Mata 'ghost goal'.

Roberto Di Matteo had dismissed suggestions that his team had been at all lucky of late and there were Chelsea complaints about the FA on two counts in the build-up to this game. One, that Branislav Ivanovic received a ban for violent conduct despite only punching Shaun Maloney in the stomach and, two, that kicking off 6pm was not only disruptive to the Blues’ preparation for Barcelona on Wednesday, it also risked endangering the safety of supporters.

Maybe the idiots on Match of the Day, who week-upon-week churn out the old chestnut “they all even themselves out over the course of a season”, have been proven right. Maybe…

Without prolonging my rant any further, let’s just put this down to a freak occurance. After all it has never happened before…  Oh!

April 2011: Chelsea 2-1 Spurs. Lampard almost broke the net with this 'goal'.

Too little time

Anorak’s bet – £10 on 12/1 at Blue Square

Tottenham Hotspur V Chelsea (Sunday 18.00 at Wembley) – Spurs to win in extra time

Once again there is a bit of crossover and this week’s Anorak’s bet has the odds of a very healthy longshot.

Tottenham‘s last three visits to Wembley have gone to extra time and, considering these two London rivals are as closely matched as they have ever been in the Premier League era, it is highly imaginable that this one will follow suit.

Spurs, who have not finished above Chelsea since 1996, currently hold the slenderest of two-point leads over the Blues in the Premier League table.

Recent results between these teams also reflect that there is little to separate them – three of the last four meetings have ended level.

If this one does go beyond the 90-minute mark, Harry Redknapp’s side will be much better prepared.

Spurs’ squad is a year younger per player on average. Also, Chelsea will have the added distraction of attempting to preserve their player’s fitness ahead of the biggest game of their season so far – the Champions League semi-final first-leg against world champions Barcelona.

2008: Spurs 2-1 Chelsea (after extra time).

It only takes one

Weekly Review

Three of my selections were, as my hero Roy Walker would say, “good but not right”, however my significant lack of faith in Wolverhampton Wanderers ensured an overall profit of £80 was had this week.

Benfica 0-1 Chelsea (Tip: Benfica to win -£10)

The Portuguese side looked the better side over 90 minutes and created the majority of the chances (17 shots compared to Chelsea’s 11), however they lacked the cutting edge in the attacking third and the Blues nicked it late on. Chelsea will now surely progress.

Apoel Nicosia 0-3 Real Madrid (Tip: Madrid to make the first substitution -£10)

I thought this was one of my most sophisticated bets of all time. However, such is fate, it anticlimactically failed after just 16 minutes when the Cypriot team were forced to replace Portuguese defender Kaka Da Silva because of injury.

Wigan Athletic 2-0 Stoke City (Tip: 0-0 draw -£5)

Stoke were as impotent as I had expected and only had one shot on target in the entire match. However, Wigan were very good and it would seem, for the second week running, I underestimated them.

Wolves 2-3 Bolton Wanderers (Tip: Bolton to win +£105)

I made a big call making this my banker and it was justified. Wolves rallied in the second half and were perhaps a little unfortunate at times, especially with the controversial penalty they conceded.

Nevertheless, eight consecutive home losses speak for themselves and I am sorry, Dan Lloyd, Wolves are now down.

Thank you Mr Banker.

Tough Euro trip for new-boy Bobby

Big Game – £10 on 6/4 at BetFred

Benfica V Chelsea (Tuesday 19.45) – Benfica to win

Roberto Di Matteo takes charge of an away game in continental competition for the first time in his managerial career.

Since he replaced Andre Villas-Boas just over three weeks ago, Chelsea have won four of their six games. However, with the magical night against Napoli aside, the fixture list was kind to the Italian for his first four games and since then, when tested against more demanding opposition in Manchester City and Spurs, they have been uninspiring and unsuccessful.

A visit to Lisbon to face Benfica should be regarded in the same bracket as the Blues’ most difficult fixtures of this campaign.

The Portuguese runners-up have a team full attacking pace, power and flair. They have won of  11 of their 12 domestic league home games this season – a 3-2 loss to champions Porto their only blip.

Manchester United are the only team to have have gone to Estadio da Luz and avoided defeat in Rui Costa’s side’s last eight home games in Europe.

Meanwhile, Chelsea have failed to win in their last five Champions League away games.

Oscar Cardozo: 10 goals in his last 8 games at Estadio da Luz.